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经济学人:德国国防:想拥有自己的核威慑能力(02)

Suddenly, however, there is an American president who, though he said last week that he would “strongly support NATO”, has also called the alliance “obsolete” and suggested that his support might be conditional on allies meeting their commitments to spend more on defence.

然而,即使美国总统上周表示他强烈支持北约,但是现在他却认为北约联盟已经过时,并且表示只有同盟国加大对国防的投入,他才会继续支持北约。

By the ghastly logic of mutual assured destruction (MAD) , deterrence must be unconditional to be credible.

于共同毁灭原则的可怕逻辑,所以核威胁毫无疑问会成功。

Countries in eastern and central Europe are beginning to fret about their vulnerability to nuclear blackmail by Russia under Vladimir Putin.

由欧洲中东部的一些国家开始惶恐因为在普京的领导下,俄罗斯的核力量对欧洲国家造成了威胁。

Germany's most obvious response would be to approach France and Britain, NATO's other two nuclear powers, for a shared deterrent.

因为法国和英国是拥有核武器的北约国家,德国为了与其共享核威慑,于是就开始亲近法国和英国。

But their arsenals are small.

但是他们的军火库规模很小。

France, moreover, has so far been unwilling to cede any sovereignty over its nuclear arms and has always been sceptical about shared deterrence.

更何况法国至今不愿意放弃核武器的主权,并且一直对共享核威慑持怀疑态度。

Britain, as its prime minister, Theresa May, has already hinted, might make its nuclear shield a subject of negotiation during the upcoming Brexit talks.

英国首相Theresa May暗示,打算利用防御核武器的能力作为即将到来脱欧谈判的重要筹码。

To Maximilian Terhalle, a German professor currently teaching in Britain, this means that Germany, Poland or the Baltic countries could never fully rely on France or Britain retaliating against Russia for a strike against them.

目前在英国教书的德国教授Maximilian Terhalle认为德国、波兰和其他波罗的海的国家绝不能完全依赖通过与英法共享核威慑来报复打击俄罗斯。

He concludes that Germany must think about getting its own nukes, perhaps in collaboration with neighbours.

他总结表示,德国应该考虑拥有自己的核弹,或许可以与邻国合作制造核弹。

Even the leader of Poland's governing party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, a habitual Germanophobe, called in February for a European nuclear deterrent, presumably financed largely by Germany.

一向讨厌德国人的波兰执政党领导人Jaroslaw Kaczynski在二月要求要有欧洲的核威慑,德国可能会在资金上大力支持。

The different dangers posed by Mr Putin and Mr Trump have raised the question of “how to deter whom with what”, even though German nukes are not the best answer, says Karl-Heinz Kamp of the Federal Academy for Security Policy, a government think-tank.

政府智囊团的联邦安全政策学院的Karl-Heinz Kamp表示,由普京造成的不同威胁,以及特朗普提出的 “如何震慑,震慑谁,又靠什么来震慑” 的问题,即使德国拥有了核弹并非最佳的解决方案。

Mr Terhalle, for his part, thinks that even a debate about a German nuclear weapon could help—if it convinced Mr Trump to stop undermining the existing international order.

Terhalle先生本人认为,即使是德国队拥有核武器的一些风声就能够起到帮助作用,可能会迫使特朗普停止破坏已有的国际秩序。

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